New parties in a crowded electoral space: the (in)stability of radical right voters in the Netherlands

Previous research demonstrated that voters for the Dutch radical right party PVV were most stable among highly volatile electorate. However, since 2017 two new parties have successfully entered Parliament: Forum Democracy (FvD) and JA21, conceivably at expense of PVV. The success these is puzzling, because there does not seem to be much room campaigning on a similar platform. In our paper, we use LISS panel data study determinants vote switching patterns between four subsequent elections from 2021. We find surprise victory far in 2019 can explained by its ability attract both former as well right. Since then, FvD has lost many supporters again, but mostly switched other far-right parties, meaning support base become fragmented, yet enlarged. This suggests when provided with viable alternatives, are voter groups.